Prediction results

How performance is measured

Prediction accuracy is the share of predictions with results where the sign of the predicted return matches the sign of the actual return. A zero return counts as flat, not as up or down.

Mean absolute error is the average absolute difference between predicted and actual percentage returns, expressed in percentage points.

Predictions without verified outcomes are excluded from both metrics. These results measure historical prediction performance, not portfolio returns, risk-adjusted performance, or a tradable strategy.